Thursday, April 21, 2005

NBA Playoffs - first round predictions

Well, OK. It's time for the games that matter to begin!

Let's start off in the East.

Chicago v. Washington
Chicago has home court advantage. I think Washington is going to win. But it isn't going to be easy. Washington in 6.

Boston v. Indiana
With Jermaine O'Neal back in uniform for Indy, no. 3 seed Boston will go down in 5.

Detroit v. Philadelphia
Iverson's good, but he's not good enough to win more than a game against the champs with nothing more than a bunch of kids and a gimpy Webber by his side. Detroit in 5. Maybe 4.

Miami v. New Jersey
This'll be tougher than most expect, I think. Miami still win, but it may take 6 games to do it. And those won't be easy games. NJ may only have Carter and Kidd, but those two are really, really good.

And on to the the West:
Dallas v. Houston
Really hard to call. Should be a great series either way. I'm going with my guy TMac and predicting Houston in 6.

Sacramento v. Seattle
Seattle will pay the price for playoffs inexperience and having no inside scoring ability. You can't win in the playoffs that way. Sacramento gets a huge boost from having Bobby Jackson back, and take this series in 6 at most.

San Antonio v. Denver
I like Denver. I think they're a nice team. That said, San Antonio is too good, to experienced, too error free. And George Carl isn't as good a coach as they think he is. Spurs in 5. Maybe 4.

Phoenix v. Memphis
Memphis is supposed to be a tough matchup for the Suns. I don't care. Amare, Nash, and Marion would each be the best player in Memphis, so they win in 5.

3 comments:

Didi said...

He would like to. But then Marion would steal his ball, dunk on him, block him, and shoot a three before he knew what hit him.

I like Pau. If he continues to evolve as a player, he may become better than the Matrix. Right now? I'd take Marion any day.

As for all the way, it's too early to tell. San Antonio is certainly the favorite if Duncan is anywhere near %100.

Didi said...

I can barely relate to what you just wrote. Marion is so much better than Posey and Battier it's not even funny. It's not even in the same ballpark.

Didi said...

Let's talk numbers. Since Marion plays more minutes, I've calculated the stats per 40 minutes. Here we go:

Points
Marion: 19.96
Battier: 12.61
Posey: 11.73

Rebounds
Marion: 11.64
Battier: 6.57
Posey: 6.34

Assists
Marion: 1.95
Battier: 2.00
Posey: 2.55

Steals
Marion: 2.07
Battier: 1.45
Posey: 1.39

Steals
Marion: 1.51
Battier: 1.22
Posey: 0.66

Do these REALLY look like similar numbers to you? Like the numbers put out by "same type of players?"

Posey and Battier are both an inch TALLER than Marion, and he's got nearly twice the rebounds per 40 minutes. He scores close to double what they do per 40 minutes, and does so at a better shooting percentage. He steals more, and he blocks more, even though he's constantly guarding players who are bigger than he is, while they guard smaller players. He's Phoenix best defender, while Posey and Battier rank as decent defenders.

If Shawn Marion is an improved version of these guys, Michael Jordan was an improved version of Harold Minor. And also... Role player? Do role players average 20 and 10? Marion WAS the franchise guy in Phoenix. Take big Amare out, and he's the franchise player right now. Here's what he did in February against Denver, when Amare was out - 30 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists. Suns won 123-114.

And since I'm a fantasy player, I'll add that Marion was the fifth player in the entire league as far as fantasy production this year by our league's tally, behind KG, LBJ, Nowitzki, and AI. Amare was sixth. Battier was no. 90. Posey was no 237.